Little dhahabu Men: Will Joaquin Phoenix Ever Win an Oscar? 

This weekend brings the close of the New York Film Festival and the stateside premiere of

, which has been the smart money for a best-actor nomination ever since audiences at the Venice Film Festival got a look at Michael Keaton's lead performance. But until we've all had a chance to get a look at the film, I think it's more fun to talk about the festival's centerpiece film, featuring another stellar lead-actor performance from someone who has arguably deserved an Oscar for a long time.

have a single prayer at the Oscars? At first glance I'd say no way—it's a rambling stoner's odyssey, the kind of detective story in which even the gumshoe himself can't follow the thread, and filled with endless narrative detours that seem to lead us right back where we started. But then again, Joaquin Phoenix is unsurprisingly terrific in it, and when he worked with Paul Thomas Anderson on

he managed a best-actor nomination even when actively campaigning against the idea. Oscar prospects may be the least interesting thing about

, a sloppy but hugely entertaining and thoughtful movie, but it might be weird and indelible enough to stick with us as the more traditional awards bait rolls out. At the very least, I'll be mentally re-playing Josh Brolin's final scene in the movie for months—it's not the most traditional way to get voter attention, but it just might work.

Elswhere at N.Y.F.F., I've finally managed to catch Damien Chazelle's

, which has been riding huge buzz ever since Sundance. Last week Mike tossed out there that he thought J.K. Simmons would win best supporting actor for the role, and now I'm inclined to agree. Richard, what do you think? Or are you still too fogged out from seeing

Well, Katey, I think it’s fair to say that I was a bit cooler on

than you were—than a lot of people were, really. But! We do agree on J.K. Simmons’s chances for

. His is the perfect kind of performance to win a best-supporting-actor Oscar. First off, it’s really a lead. That always helps in the supporting category. But it’s also a big, bracing, showy performance in an underdog movie that voters can feel in-the-know for voting for, coming from a hey-it’s-that-guy actor we’ve all loved for years. Supporting actor is a muddy category right now, but Simmons currently seems the guy to beat by a wide margin.

. This is a tough movie to pitch to the Academy. It’s sort of a comedy, but it’s also dark and difficult and says a lot of deep stuff about America. But it’s not quite a “prestige” movie, despite its sterling cast and auteur pedigree. I think it’s a likely bet for an adapted screenplay adaptation and maybe cinematography, but in terms of the so-called bigger categories, I think Anderson could mayyybe spoil someone else’s best-director chances—

making inroads anywhere else. Phoenix may be due, but it’s just such a crowded actor field this year. I don’t see surreal stoner comedy finding a place amid all the classy stuff.

As long as we’re talking best actor, someone I’d love to see thrown in the mix is Johannes Kuhnke, from the little Swedish film that could,

, which had people raving in Cannes and Toronto. I missed it at both festivals, but was finally able to catch it in New York last week. And man oh man is it good. Kuhnke and his co-star, Lisa Loven Kongsli are terrific, funny and heartbreaking and utterly believable. Though, Kuhnke has the flashier role, which is why I'm bringing him up here. Look, I know it’ll never happen, but it was at least worth mentioning, I think. Do you have an beyond-underdog whom you're rooting for right now? Someone you know will never make it into the running, even though they’re great in a great movie?

Richard, you're totally right about lead performances being shoved into the supporting categories acting as an unfair advantage— just look at Christoph Waltz walking away with

supporting-actor statues for what were truly lead roles in Quentin Tarantino films. Eventually we'll have a chance to talk about

, which has to figure out how to place three exceptional performances from Channing Tatum, Steve Carell, and Mark Ruffalo, at least two of whom could be considered leads.

But you asked me to talk about the little movies that could, which

most certainly isn't. I know comedies are always a tough sell with any awards, and comedies about abortion doubly so, but Jenny Slate's terrific work in

has stuck with me for months. And I have no idea how you choose between Alfred Molina and John Lithgow as a best-actor push for

, but have you seen a more lived-in portrayal of romance this year? Finally, I'm curious if a new surge of press for

’s Chadwick Boseman can result in anything; it's a terribly crowded best-actor field, as we keep saying, but his portrayal of James Brown was both electric and remarkably nuanced. Viola Davis is wonderful in the movie as well, so I'm wondering if a supporting campaign for her, a two-time nominee, could maybe push Boseman up to the top of the pack.

elbow in on the best actor competition. Richard, the embargo has lifted for

. Do you think any voters will be willing to slog through the blood and gore of this war film to give Brad Pitt a chance?

, which is maybe my favorite movie this year, but is sadly not getting any sort of awards buzz or attention. I haven’t seen

yet, but I feel like there is some increased rumbling for Boseman, which could bode well for him. But again, there are a lot of actors vying for five spots, so it’ll be tricky.

be vying for a spot, I don’t think, is Mr. Pitt. He does a perfectly fine job in

character with the volume turned down—but the movie he’s in is both a relentless downer and an awkwardly macho-fied piece of war porn. I don’t see it having much traction in the awards race at all. Not entirely surprising, but there was a moment there when it looked like

with you, Katey, now that you’ve seen it. But that deserves a whole other column.

it feels like the kind of awards season standout that will be endlessly discussed all the way through to next year.

—I am a genuine fan of Shia LaBeouf's work in the film, which I think is so absorbed in the character, and so thoroughly un-self-conscious, that if we'd never seen him before we would be talking about nothing but him. Given the likely trajectory of

this awards season, though, I guess LaBeouf might wind up another actor on my list of people who aren't being given the attention they deserve.

Publicity Stunt Makes You Feel Like a Brain in a Jar

’s Director Explains Why It’s Actually a Funny Story

Larry David Has No Idea What to Do With Jennifer Lawrence’s Crush on Him

Lena Dunham Thinks Amanda Bynes is a Great Writer

Cover Exclusive: Jennifer Lawrence Calls Photo Hacking a “Sex Crime”

Bill Murray Explains Why He Doesn’t Have a Girlfriend

Taylor Swift Was Not Amused by John Cleese’s Comments About Her Cat

Miley Cyrus Got a Tattoo She’ll Probably Regret

Photos: Jennifer Lawrence Poses for Vanity Fair

Portraits From the Toronto International Film Festival