Game of Thrones Theorycrafting: The Pack Survives 

Theorycrafting, we’re going to look at a well-known quote from Ned Stark to his youngest daughter Arya, and how I believe this quote will play into Season 6. In

series, Eddard Stark finds himself facing the unenviable task of having to explain the meaning of death to his child, while at the same time teaching her not to hate her sister because family is more important than anything…more important even, than honor. Ned reminds Arya of House Stark’s words—Winter is coming—and then he tells her this:

“When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies but the pack survives.”

I believe there’s a lot more meaning to that quote than meets the eye. I think it holds a clue concerning Martin’s intentions to restore House Stark to its former glory, and to do it with the next generation of Starks…that is to say, the remaining living children of Ned and Catelyn, and to an extent, Lyanna.

As we look further into this theory, we must take a step back to the first Stark loss in

: The death of Sansa’s direwolf, Lady. When Joffrey attacked Mycah the butcher’s boy in

, it was Arya and her direwolf Nymeria who defended the lad, but it was Sansa and Lady who paid the ultimate price. Metaphorically, Sansa decided to stray from her pack—she lied about what happened at the river’s edge, and because of that lie, Lady was executed.

, when Ned himself was beheaded. Many people would blame Sansa for Ned’s death, as it was once again the eldest Stark daughter who decided to go off on her own, turning her back on her pack and informing Queen Cersei of some of her father’s intentions to send her and Arya away. However, I believe this is too easy of a path to take, because while Sansa’s actions absolutely contributed to Ned’s downfall, it was Ned’s refusal of aid from Renly Baratheon that caused him to be woefully undermanned and unprepared for Cersei’s trap.

Had Ned listened to Renly and arrested the Queen, he could have manipulated the situation to his own ends, but his honor caused him to go the route of the lone wolf—ignoring his own lesson to Arya—and he paid the price for it with his head.

The next Stark losses came in rapid succession, with both Robb and Lady Catelyn dying just moments apart from each other at the Red Wedding. Again, the pattern repeated: Robb’s betrayal of his marriage pact with House Frey opened the hole Lord Tywin Lannister needed to worm his way into Robb’s inner circle, turning House Bolton against him in the process. Had Robb stayed with his pack and not sought to follow his heart and marry Jeyne/Talisa, he very well could still be alive at this point in the story.

To take this a step further, Robb’s direwolf Grey Wind was kept alone in a kennel during the wedding reception/mass murder that claimed the life of his master. The lone wolf died at the Red Wedding, both metaphorically and literally…George R.R. Martin’s work is full of these little layers.

The next loss for House Stark was the death of Lady Catelyn. Now, one must go back a bit further to find out where she strayed from the pack. When Catelyn and Winterfell’s Master-at-Arms—Ser Rodrik Cassel—happened across Tyrion Lannister at the Inn at the Crossroads, she acts rashly and takes the son of Casterly Rock hostage, mistakenly thinking the Imp had attempted to murder her son Bran. This caused Lord Tywin Lannister to defend his House’s bruised honor, and the stage was set for The War of the Five Kings.

Her next mistake was to free Jaime Lannister from captivity. This caused backlash in the ranks of her Robb’s army. Robb eventually lost the support of the Karstarks, had to expend resources and men to hunt the Kingslayer (to no avail), and lost the biggest bargaining chip the Stark camp had. Lady Catelyn would pay for these mistakes with her life.

Finally, let’s take a look at the last death—so far—to befall House Stark: the death of Jon Snow. Whether you consider him to be Ned’s actual bastard son, or you think of him as the son of Lyanna and Rhaegar, one thing remains true: he is half-Stark, and was raised in the North. Throughout the books and show, Jon demonstrated a Ned-like proclivity for being stubborn to a fault. In fact, Jon’s need to be honorable unto his last breath mirrored the death of Ned almost exactly. This is why it’s so frustrating to watch Jon make the mistakes he did as Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch.

In the books, it was Jon’s decision to let the wildlings through the Wall and his plan to use their men and women to garrison the abandoned forts at its base that eventually caused his officers to revolt and murder him (we assume). In the show, it’s Jon’s decision to go to Hardhome to rescue the wildlings from the White Walkers that eventually leads Alliser Thorne to lead his fellow officers to murder Jon. The result is the same, as Jon decided to ignore advice from his friends, advisors, and fellow officers and struck out on his own, eventually paying the ultimate price. “

He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold.

Now let’s look at how House Stark has suffered as a result of failing to heed Ned’s words to Arya and turning from their pack:

Arya’s direwolf is lost and Sansa’s direwolf is dead.

Sansa is held against her will by the Lannisters in King’s Landing.

Jon’s men revolt and murder him for allowing the wildlings to pass through the Wall.

? What does the pack have to do with a family that has been scattered across Westeros and the Narrow Sea? Ned’s words still ring true: the actions of the lone wolves have resulted in their deaths and the deaths of the ones they love. To triumph, the Stark kids will have to band together.

When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies but the pack survives.

” I believe these words hold the key to what will happen to House Stark in Season 6, and possibly in 

. We’ve already seen a picture of Kit Harington on set at Saintfield, Northern Ireland, where the production appears to be filming a massive battle scene, wearing what appears to be the garb of House Stark rather than the blacks of the Night’s Watch. We also know that Art Parkinson (Rickon) and Natalia Tena (Osha) have been spotted in Belfast, so it’s safe to assume they’ll show up in Season 6.

The last time we saw Rickon and his guardian, they were being sent by Bran to the Last Hearth, a castle ruled over by a powerful Northern family: House Umber. We know from casting rumors that more Northern Lords will be apart of Season 6, and some casting calls have given specifics:

Lord of Noble Northern House: This lord is a savage warrior who rules a house in the very far North. HBO is looking for someone with a Northern English accent and a powerful physique who can tower over other cast members. He must be at least 180 cm tall, which is around 5 feet 11 inches…He’s also described as having a beard and a violent temper. He’ll be appear in two episodes. 

Lord of Northern Stronghold: This northern lord is in his thirties or forties and rules a vassal house household with a castle stronghold. He’s “ruthless and calculating” and will appear in three episodes. 

(Word is that this will be a lord from House Karstark.)

Book readers will be quick to point out that the Greatjon, the Head of House Umber, was captured at the Red Wedding, while his son the Smalljon was killed trying to protect Robb Stark. However, in the show, neither were at the Red Wedding, and are still alive so far we know. So, for the purposes of the show, Osha, Rickon, and Shaggydog are likely at the Last Hearth being protected by the Umbers, a house still fiercely loyal to the Starks and the King in the North.

Next, we know that Sansa and Theon escaped Winterfell at the end of Season 5 by Thelma and Louise-ing themselves off the walls, and that Brienne and Pod are in the general area. Broken bones and twisted ankles aside, it would make sense for Sansa to want to go to the one place she knows she has family remaining: The Wall and her half-brother Jon (remember, although she now knows that Rickon and Bran are alive, she doesn’t know where they are). My speculation is that Sansa runs into Brienne and convinces her to take her to the Wall.

The wildcard in this theory is Jon. If Sansa arrives at the Wall before Jon’s resurrection, she may leave before he he can be brought back from the dead, and this theory could fall apart. However, if Sansa finds Jon alive, or sticks around long enough to see him resurrected, then she could help (in some way) to solidify his legitimacy as a Stark…she being a trueborn Stark and all.

Next, we would need Jon and Sansa to find Rickon. The Last Hearth got its name because it is the last castle travelers find before reaching the Wall, meaning it wouldn’t be that hard to get to for someone already at the Wall. Jon and company may need to flee the Wall after he’s brought back from the dead, especially if his brothers think he’s some kind of abomination. It’s at the Last Hearth that Jon and Sansa will reunite with Rickon, and the Stark pack will be together once again. (True, Arya is still in Braavos and Bran is in the far North, but I believe they will come into play later.)

The Starks must turn to their pack in order to survive the white winds, or else die as lone wolves. With three Stark children back together, the Northern Lords would have a new King in the North to rally behind. Before reinstalling the Starks, the Boltons must be defeated, which is what I believe the filming in Saintfield is about. Our own Ani Bundel has even theorized that the Others/White Walkers will descend on the Northern hosts, which could mean that the Wall will have fallen…but that’s for another week, and another theorycraft.

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The first lone wolf to stray from the pack, in a sense, was Ned when he agreed to go to Kings Landing against the protests of wife. His family would still be complete although Bran would still be crippled.

Actually she was in favor of him going and he was against it at first, then came Brans’ fall and she was against it then her sisters message and she was for it. Ned had to go.

Maybe it’s an analogy to far and a bit tenuous, but could Theon be included as part of the Stark pack? When he strayed from it disaster ensued at Winterfell and for him personally. He eventually admits to himself and his sister (if I recall correctly) that after all he’s been through and put the Starks through that he still feels more wolf than kraken.

Maybe it’s an analogy to far and a bit tenuous, but could Theon be included as part of the Stark pack? When he strayed from it disaster ensued at Winterfell and for him personally. He eventually admits to himself and his sister (if I recall correctly) that after all he’s been through and put the Starks through that he still feels more wolf than kraken.

Great thought. Yes you’re right, Theon could be considered part of that pack. In fact in ADWD he does say that Ned Stark was more a father to him than Balon Greyjoy ever was.

Nicely theorized. I do hope there is a lot of truth to it. Would be so gratifying to those of us loyal to House Stark.

Right? I know GRRM is known for writing against the usual tropes, but I am a Stark man through and through and would love to see that House rise from the ashes.

Perhaps he will pleasantly surprise us all by going against HIS own usual tropes. Winterfell!!

Well, the way that the krakens treated Theon when he went back to the Iron Islands probably didn’t instill much confidence or loyalty in him. That doesn’t exonerate him for his disloyalty to the Starks.

Indeed. It’ll be interesting to see what happens if/when Theon next meets a living Stark in TWOW. My money would be on Sansa or Rickon, neither of whom could be expected to be especially welcoming.

I hope all this comes true as it would be satisfying to see them together, not to mention necessary to the logic of the story.

so far they have mainly melted and without dragons even around.

I think an ice dragon would be cool but am not hoping for one.

Good job David. I have some thoughts on the subject but for some reason the site is not posting them. I hit “Post Comment” but they don’t show up. Maybe I am too close to the truth and George RR is blocking them LOL this has happened before

Enjoyed the read razor. It does seem the Starks will rise from the ashes. I believe it’s a testament to Ned and the Stark rulers before him that powerful houses like Umber. Manderly and Glover remain loyal to them even after the deaths of Ned and Robb.

FUCK Theon, he is not part of the pack. How dare any of you think otherwise and call yourself Stark loyalists. I do hope he does something that helps the Stark cause but even if he kills Roose or Ramsey or performs some other great feat, he is still a traitor and dead to me.

Why the name Athelstan? U actually liked his character in Vikings? Or maybe it has nothing to do with that show

The series started with the Starks, so they must be part of the end-game for sure. I believe the preliminary title of the last book was a “A time for Wolves”. It would be a total waste of time for me if I don’t read a happy ending for at least a couple of Stark children … I know it’s going to be a bittersweet end…. But it would be sad enough if Bran is not able to meet his family again … I mentioned it before, the Starks need to get together to survive Winter. They have Bran on their side, so I hope they make it. I have a feeling Bran will find a way to communicate with his siblings.

Robb did not consider Theon a Stark or a brother like Jon IMO. I know Robb and Jon were raised together since babies, obviously the bond is stronger … I don’t think the Starks feel Theon is one of them. I do believe he should be though. Bran was able to forgive him, Sansa probably will in the show, but I don’t think Jon will forgive him (maybe). I’m sure Rickon and Arya won’t.

On the other hand, I believe Sansa will end with Jon … because in the original outline of the books Jon was supposed to fall in love with Arya, but I don’t see it happening now, but maybe with Sansa …

I’ll tell you one thing about Theon, he’s probably the best written character in the whole series. GRRM best work imo.

And whichever side Theon chose he was going to be a (traitor) . Name one other character in asoiaf who had to make the choice Theon did? Choose your friend or your family? Yes Balon is a shot disturbed mother fucker but still his father.

In the end I believe Theon will be mostly redeemed. GRRM has kept Theon alive for a reason. I truly think he does something major regarding the end game of the series.

Wonderfully written character and portrayed great by Alfie Allen. Probably most underrated actor on the show.

I agree. Theon/Reek is definitely one of the most interesting characters and Alfie played him wonderfully. If Theon was treated like a Stark maybe he would not have betrayed them in the first place. Although he was really annoying at the beginning …

It’s partially because Theon started out as such an arrogant, unsympathetic character that his subsequent journey has been so fascinating (though I could have done without the extended torture scenes). I’ve gone from disliking him a great deal to rooting for him to have a full redemption arc. Much of the credit goes to Alfie Allen’s superlative acting for sure!

My guess is that Theon will end up sacrificing himself for the Starks in some way. But it would be cool if he first finds out that he impregnated the sea captain’s daughter and legitimizes the child, who eventually goes on to sit the Seastone Chair.

Great post I hope it works out this way! I’ve often wondered about Ned’s lone wolf comment on a smaller scale…in context of Arya’s possible return to Westeros. With the Faceless Men she’s been able to fly under the radar as well as honing her skills as an assassin. But given her inability to give up Needle she’s also shown she’s not ready to give up her true identity, and fully commit to being “no one”. I often wonder if she’ll eventually revisit Ned’s warning and return to Westeros, reclaim Nymeria, and her identity as a Stark. Or…will she continue down her path as a lone wolf and suffer the same fate as her parents and brother?

A well written piece. You have obviously read and reread the books several times. When I read that line I merely thought that Ned was telling Arya – “United we stand,divided we fall.” Maybe that’s all there is to it. I do see a connection between the wolves and their owners. The fate of the wolves mirroring the fate of the children. Theon didn’t receive a pup. The outsider.

On the battle front we all seem to be assuming that the Starks and their bannermen will overthrow the Boltons. THis is GRRM we’re talking about here. Littlefinger will be somewhere with his army from The Vale. He’ll be waiting, like Lord Stanley at the battle of Bosworth Field on which so much of the story is based, to see which army has the upper hand before engaging. Littlefinger is the key to everything in the books and the show. He won’t be the king but he will be the kingmaker. It certainly doesn’t suit him to have a Jon Snow led coalition retake Winterfell. Unless, of course, he has a leading role within it. He may well find a way of convincing the Vale that they should back the Boltons if that suits him better. In the War Of The Roses Henry Tudor had afar weaker claim to the throne than Richard III – but look who came out on top. Everything is up for grabs. WE’ll see come next April.

I sorta hope that Theon redeems himself by killing Ramsay. And keeping Sansa safe.

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