Big Hero 6's Big Oscar Chances 

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Sometime last Sunday, the big movie story of the weekend changed from everything

(its science, its running time, the quality of its sound mix) to the fact that Christopher Nolan’s conversation-hogging blockbuster was trumped at the box-office by a puffy white balloon robot. Disney and Marvel’s

took the top spot, leading to a bevy of “how did this happen?” articles.

Regardless of how it happened, now that it has, the future for the animated superhero tale is promising—so much so that it could end up with an Oscar. Right now, the Best Animated Feature category looks to be a fascinating, tough contest between

The Seven Films That Can Still Win the Oscar for Best Picture

To understand why it’s essentially a two-movie race, look at the field more broadly. According to movie awards sites The Film Experience and In Contention, the major contenders, in alphabetical order are:

Came and went at the box-office without a whole lot of fuss.

: The latest from animation company Laika, who scored a nomination a couple years ago for

: The first one probably would have won in 2010 if not for a little movie called

success story—animated or not—of the first third of 2014.

movies are reliable box-office smashes but have never been nominated at the Oscars.

got that odd Best Original Song nomination, the film didn’t make the short list.

: The latest from animation distributor GKids, which gave us 2009 nominee

: The latest from Studio Ghibli, whose three previous nominees (

) have yet to open, and neither one of them feels like they have the potential to become the kind of popular/critical hit to end up as the winner here. If I had to guess right now, I\'d say your nominees are looking like

So who wins? Historically—the Best Animated Feature category has existed since 2001—there have been a few proven routes to the Oscar:

Be a Best Picture nominee: Since the Best Picture category expanded beyond five nominees in 2009, animated films are suddenly welcome at the big table. Both

in 2010 ended up among the 10 Best Picture nominees those years, and both walked to easy victories in the animated category.

Be a massive blockbuster: Only two of the last 14 winners in this category have failed to crack $100 million, and in fact all but two of

movies failed to crack $200 million. If popularity isn\'t king in this category, it\'s at least a crown prince.

Be Pixar: The animation studio has utterly dominated this category over the years, winning seven of the nine years in which it had a film nominated. Even a film like

, which had decidedly not set the world on fire like its predecessors, still managed to triumph in 2012 over a field that failed to produce a clear frontrunner. All things being equal, being Pixar sure helps.

, and that one had rules 1-3 up there going for it. Otherwise sequels (or spin-offs, in the case of

Stunning GoPro Footage From the Front Lines of Wildfire

In the field with the Geronimo Hotshots, an elite Native American firefighting crew

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